The political earthquake Farage has long promised is now shaking our political system

It's quite simply a political earthquake.

Across England, Reform proved it can translate positive polling into real power, picking up another parliamentary seat, a mayoralty, Staffordshire and Lincolnshire councils and dozens of seats by lunchtime. The popularity surge for this anti-establishment party is real.  Look at the votes: Reform doubling its vote share in Runcorn against the general election to 38%, clocking up 42% of the vote in the Lincolnshire mayoral race and 32% in the Doncaster mayoral race, running Labour very close.

By lunchtime, Reform had taken the long-held Staffordshire council from the Tories, wiping out their five-strong majority. The significance of these wins, added in with the big gains for the Lib Dems and Greens, cannot be overstated.

It speaks in a serious way to a new era of politics in the UK, in which the decades-long duopoly of Labour versus Conservative is crumbling with the rise of the other parties. Politics latest: PM told to 'change course' as Reform surge to election wins The trend was evident in the 2024 general election, when the two main parties got their lowest ever vote share.

Labour's clever targeting of seats ensured that it won a massive majority on just 34% of the popular vote. The Lib Dems won a record 70 seats, while Reform picked up five MPs and came second in 98 constituencies.

If that was a loveless landslide, this is the break-up, as voters, who backed Labour's change message, seem to be pressing the change button again and turning out for a leader who is tapping into voters' disillusionment with his slogan that "Britain is broken and needs Reform". For the government to lose a by-election just 10 months after winning a massive landslide is a terrible moment for Labour.

It won this seat with 53% of the vote in July, against Reform polling at 18%. To end up losing it - albeit by just six votes - is a dreadful verdict from voters here on their early performance.

Those around the PM admit it is deeply frustrating but say they expected a kicking from an angry electorate impatient for change. They are taking crumbs of comfort in, just about, holding the mayoralties of Doncaster, North Tyneside and West of England.

But in early council results, the drop in the Labour vote is big, and that raises questions as to whether Starmer's party will struggle to hold constituencies it gained in the July election, such as Hexham in Northumberland. The approach from No 10 is to "keep calm and carry on" with its government agenda - the immigration white paper, defence review, infrastructure strategy - to deliver for the public and win back the support they had in the last general election in time for the next.

Read more:Full local and mayoral election resultsReform has put the two traditional parties on notice For the Conservatives, it's been - to quote one political rival - a "story of Tory councillors getting machine gunned". In Staffordshire, where Farage did his final rally, Reform have taken a council where the Tories had a 50-strong majority.

The party has been absolutely hammered by Reform in the Tory heartlands of Lincolnshire, where Dame Andrea Jenkyns won the Greater Lincolnshire mayoralty by 40,000 votes. In the general election, the Conservatives held six of the eight parliamentary seats in this county, on Friday Jenkyns beat the Tories in eight out of the nine areas.

Those around Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch are trying to steady nerves, arguing that these results are disappointing but not surprising in the context of the party's worst-ever election defeat in 2024, with the party "under new leadership" and "still in the early stages of a long-term plan to renew". Others are panicked and angry.

"This is what political extinction looks like," one senior Tory source told me, in a sign that questions over Badenoch's leadership are only going to build. There are many results still to come in, but what these elections are pointing to is the rise of multi-party politics with voting spread across three or four parties in many of the races and the two main parties rapidly losing ground.

It ties into the longer run trends in our voting, leaning towards more parties and less tribalism amongst voters, as the electorate shift loyalties, and frustration with Labour and the Tories fuels support for the alternatives. Reform's success in Runcorn and Durham, as well as Staffordshire and Lincolnshire, shows that Farage poses a significant threat to the two main parties.

Add in the Lib Dems, challenging the Tories in their blue wall shires on the centre right, and what we see emerging is a party system where the two governing parties are no longer dominant. These elections then, while relatively small, are profoundly consequential for our political system.

Where we go next is hugely unclear. Much will rest on whether Labour can deliver on its promises and dull Farage's drumbeat of change.

Reform's challenge will be to prove that it can govern and sustain the additional scrutiny that being in office entails. The Conservatives are in the most desperate place of all, squeezed by Reform on the right flank and the Lib Dems on the left.

But what is clearer after today is that the political earthquake Farage has long promised is now shaking our political system in a perhaps epochal way. The Reform leader has long been saying he is this country's next prime minister.

Looking at the way he and his party have translated poll leads into real power means that prospect is no longer a pipe dream..