Allies agree on 30-day Ukraine ceasefire but will Trump force Putin to comply?

Ask Ukrainians and they will make it perfectly clear.

Being forced to give away chunks of their country to murderous, brutal invaders as part of a deal cooked up between Putin and his admirers in the White House is far from ideal. Read more: Ukraine and 'coalition of the willing' press Russia for 30-day ceasefire They would far prefer being given the means to expel the invaders and secure victory.

That is, after all, the precedent the world has commemorated this week. 80 years ago, a tyrant was defeated completely.

The Second World War did not end in a deal with the devil. But a deal with Russia is what the West is contemplating for Ukraine, despite all it has done.

It did not have to be this way. The combined economic might of the four European leaders who came to Kyiv this weekend and the others who joined by video link is well over ten times that of Russia.

Ten times. And yet in more than three years, they have failed to provide the leverage to give Ukrainians what they need to finish the job and win.

That would involve some sacrifices at home, difficult financial decisions and there simply does not seem to be the political will to make any of that happen. Instead, Ukraine's European allies have leapt on a far from perfect American peace initiative.

They have justified that by insisting that without American help, Ukraine simply has no hope of carrying on even if independent analysis from the likes of the Kiel Institute suggests that simply is not true. Trump's peace plan is hugely problematic.

His administration's diplomacy appears one-sided, favouring the aggressor in this conflict. And for the peace plan to work as the Europeans would like, the US president must strongarm Vladimir Putin to the negotiating table.

Donald Trump has shown no willingness to do so. Read more:Russia's VE Day parade felt like celebration of warMichael Clarke Q&A on Ukraine warUkraine and Russia accuse each other of breaching ceasefire But recent events have made the Europeans hopeful again.

Donald Trump's sympathies appear to have been shifting away from Moscow in the wake of the minerals deal he has recently signed with Ukraine. He has openly wondered whether he is being played by Putin and has been critical of continuing Russian attacks killing civilians.

The leaders who came to Kyiv hope calls for a 30-day ceasefire give them and the Americans a common cause - and if Russia's leader refuses to comply, Trump may be finally provoked to act. For that strategy to work, two things now need to happen.

Donald Trump will have to get heavy with Putin and force him to the negotiating table, and they must all agree on how to punish Russia if it fails to comply, a jeopardy they singularly failed to spell out in Kyiv this weekend..