Surprise good news as government borrowing less than forecast

The government borrowed the least amount of money in three years last month, official figures showed, in a surprise bout of good news for Chancellor Rachel Reeves.

Not since July 2021, in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic, was state borrowing so low, according to data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). Increases in tax and national insurance receipts meant public sector net borrowing was £1.1bn in July, meaning there was a £1.1bn gap between government spending and income.

Money latest: Top chef raves about supermarket sandwich and reveals customer behaviour he can't stand That borrowing is less than half the figure (£2.6bn) expected by economists polled by the Reuters news agency, as self-assessed income tax was £600m higher than expected. But borrowing was still £6bn higher in the first four months of the financial year, which started in April, than the same period in 2024.

Despite a £2.3bn drop in monthly borrowing when July 2025 is compared with July 2024, the state still spent more on the cost of that lending. The amount of interest paid on government debt was £7.1bn, £200m more than a year earlier.

Read more:Europe tried to starve Putin's war machine with sanctions - but something else happenedWomen effectively without a pension for four months a year due to gender gap, research finds The cost of government borrowing has increased in recent months as the interest rate investors demand on loans issued to the UK (bonds) rose. At the start of the week, the government's long-term borrowing cost, as measured by the interest rate on 30-year bonds (known as the gilt yield), closed at the highest level since 1998.

What does it mean for the chancellor? The monthly borrowing data is in line with the predictions made by independent forecasters, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR). It may not be as rosy a picture, however, as research firm Capital Economics point out the cumulative budget deficit, rather than a monthly figure, is £5.7bn above the OBR's forecast.

This matters for the chancellor's self-imposed fiscal rules, to bring down government debt and balance the budget by 2030, the firm said. "The chancellor will probably need to raise taxes by £17bn to £27bn at the budget later this year," Capital Economics' UK economist Alex Kerr said.

Elevated self-assessment income tax receipts "may just reflect the timing of tax returns being recorded, and receipts in August may be weaker than expected.