Tory conference might be smaller than previous years, leaked data suggests

Will as many people as last year come to Tory conference? I have a leak that helps explore this - and it reveals the party itself is expecting fewer.

Normally you don't get any detailed breakdowns of conference data - who is coming and in what category. But I've been shared an early cut of the numbers from this year.

What you can see above is a screenshot of the data sent to the party board. I am told this table is from 11 August and shows the then-current attendance figures which were sent to the Conservative Party board.

They revealed numbers due to be coming to Manchester this week, lagging on last year. You can see that at that stage, there are more than 1,000 fewer members due to come to conference than had been listed in early August 2024.

Indeed, the party's target is markedly lower. There are also fewer Young Conservatives, though by a much smaller margin.

However, the number of commercial guests is up on last year, as is donors, known as 'Treasurer's Guests', although the number planning to attend Business Day on Monday is down. Read more:Tory conference - a chance for Badenoch to turn her fortunes around?Tories pledge £1.6bn ICE-style 'removals force' to deport 150,000 a yearBadenoch says Tories will quit ECHR if they win next election The 'Margaret Thatcher 100th,' a commemoration of her life, is a new event to mark the centenary of the former Conservative prime minister's birth which is on 13 October.

I'm told the current number of members coming to Manchester is 3,500, although that is calculated on a different basis to these - and includes Young Conservatives. Another source told me the number of members coming to conference - calculated on the above basis - is around 2,800 but it was not possible to verify that.

A Conservative spokesman said: "This out-of-date report does not reflect the strength of Conservative Party conference 2025. "There are thousands of members - many new to the party - hundreds of businesses, and many other delegates attending to hear Kemi Badenoch's bold new vision for the country.

"This conference the Conservatives will demonstrate they are the only party that can be trusted to deliver a stronger economy and stronger borders for the country." In response to the leaked data, Reform UK posted on X, "The Conservative Party is finished.".