Trump may have another motive in extreme escalation of war on drugs

The world's largest aircraft carrier is steaming towards the Caribbean supported by the rest of its "carrier group" to add even more muscle to the US forces already threateningly close to Venezuela.

The question is simple - is this really all about President Trump's war on drugs in South America? I doubt it. A sledgehammer to crack a nut that isn't even there.

There are a few reasons to doubt the American government's stated aim of wiping out these so-called "narco terrorist" gangs threatening the US from Venezuela, even after one takes out of the equation the sort of equipment the military is deploying - which isn't what they would need for effective drug smuggling interdiction. While the president acknowledges that the synthetic opioid fentanyl is a huge killer in the US (which it is) and is supplied by drug gangs (which it is), to blame Venezuela for fentanyl production is simply incorrect.

Mexican cartels produce fentanyl with precursors largely supplied from China, and it is from Mexico - America's neighbour - that the fentanyl is smuggled directly into the US across its southern border. Venezuela isn't involved in this fentanyl business in any meaningful way, and I know this because I have reported from the Sinaloa cartel's fentanyl production labs in Mexico.

The Mexican cartels are very proud of their business, and from my experience covering this story over the years, when the drugs cartels are proud of something, and it makes them a lot of money - which fentanyl does - they don't share the market with anyone, and certainly not with Venezuela. President Trump is right that Venezuela is now a large supplier of other illegal drugs, especially cocaine, but they come from countries like Colombia, Peru, and Bolivia, which are the largest producers of the coca leaf in the world (the coca leaf is what cocaine is made from).

Read more:US accused of 'inventing a war'Survivors reported after boat strikeUS destroys 'drug smuggling submarine' Venezuela, which borders Colombia, is largely a transit country to the Caribbean in the same way that Ecuador, which also borders Colombia, is a transit country to the Pacific. Neither Venezuela nor Ecuador are significant drug producers.

The drugs enter Venezuela overland, primarily from Colombia, and then mainly leave the country from ports on the northern coast of the country - and these are the departure points of the boats the US government has recently targeted and destroyed, along with the crews on board. President Trump claims these boats from Venezuela are heading to the US, but in reality they are mainly heading to the nearby islands of Trinidad and Tobago, and from there they largely go to West Africa and Europe - mostly Spain and Portugal.

Drugs heading to America either pass through Mexico over the border into the US or are transported via the Pacific Ocean route through countries like Ecuador. In this instance, Venezuela isn't involved.

Read more: Inside Pablo Escobar's home city where drugs are readily available It's widely accepted the two most exported drugs from South America are cocaine and marijuana - and the volume of production is staggering. But the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention in the US says that synthetic opioids like fentanyl are responsible for most overdose deaths there - and fentanyl is not produced in South America, whatever the president says.

So one can only conclude he is either mistaken and misinformed, or he has another motive. I suspect it is the latter, and that regime change in Venezuela is top of the list.

It's no secret that US Secretary of State Marco Rubio - who has President Trump's ear - is a fervent supporter of the Venezuelan opposition and has been pushing for Venezuela's president Nicolas Maduro to be toppled for years now. It's a passion project of his.

And although the US government continues to insist their military manoeuvres are simply part of a wider counter drugs operation, it's hard to imagine that getting rid of an 'unfriendly' leader in a country with huge oil reserves, to bring in a 'friendly' leader in the opposition who they can do business with, is not part of their equation..