Putin is waiting to take advantage if today's crucial Ukraine meeting ends in failure

EU leaders will meet in Brussels today to try to agree the release of €210bn (£184bn) to help fund Ukraine's war with Russia.

The money, which comes from Russian assets frozen after Moscow's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, is mostly held in the Belgian-headquartered clearing house, Euroclear. The money is seen as vital to Ukraine's ability to keep fighting, because the country faces bankruptcy in early 2026 if it doesn't receive more international assistance.

That means Kyiv would no longer be able to pay soldiers, police and civil servants or buy weapons to defend itself. Latest updates on Ukraine war Last night, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who is expected to brief the EU leaders today, wrote on X: "The result Europe produces - must make Russia feel that its desire to continue the war next year is pointless, because Ukraine will have support.

This rests entirely with Europe." The Belgian government has so far prevented the move amid fears it will expose the small country to Russian legal action in the future. The EU is racing to find solutions to Belgium's concerns, including passing an emergency bill that secures the sanctions against Russia indefinitely, superseding the need to renew them every six months and thereby insulating it from veto votes from Russian-leaning EU member states like Hungary and Slovakia.

Belgium also wants guarantees that all EU members will share any financial cost of Russian action against it. Why the push to use Russian assets? The US, which has so far given billions of dollars to Kyiv, is losing interest under Donald Trump and can no longer be relied upon for financial support.

Previously, the EU had been giving the interest generated from the frozen assets to Ukraine, but was worried it might destabilise the Eurozone economy if it touched the assets itself. That has changed, however, as Ukraine's need has become more acute and fears over Russia's wider imperialist ambitions have grown in recent months.

This unlocking of seized Russian assets is also being seen as a way to buy Brussels more leverage in peace negotiations, as well as reducing Kyiv's dependency on Washington. Read more:South Africans fighting for RussiaRussia trying to 'bully' UK and allies German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who has been leading the campaign to release the funds, warned that "Europe would be severely damaged for years" if they fail to pass the vote and "this step is not about prolonging the war but about bringing the war to an end as soon as possible".

In short, the consequences of using the frozen assets are now considered less risky than the consequences of not taking this action. What's at stake? Trump wanted the money to be invested in two US investment funds, something the EU rejects.

The US president has recently been scathing of European leaders, and the EU sees Thursday's meeting as an opportunity to show its strength and unity. In theory, the EU could pass the policy by majority vote, thereby sidelining the Belgian government, but officials are reluctant to go down this path for fear of alienating Belgium and causing a diplomatic rift in the alliance.

Much is riding on the meeting. If the EU fails to pass the vote, its credibility will take a severe blow.

It will likely become even more irrelevant in peace talks, and Vladimir Putin might look to take advantage of a divided Europe..