Trump's credibility gap and why Iran may want to take its chances in Israel conflict

After hours of talks, the ayatollah's chief diplomat emerged giving little away.

All eyes were on Abbas Aragchi. Would he give ground in the face of Israel's fierce bombardment of his country? Yes, but only if Israel stops that bombardment which is not going to happen.

Especially after a day when two of Israel's big cities suffered direct hits from Iranian missiles. The best that can be said for almost four hours of talks, is they happened and might again.

There were no breakthroughs to report, no ground shifting on either side. The talks were flawed in concept from the beginning.

The countries meeting Aragchi here are not involved in the conflict. Israel and America were absent.

The US did send a message, via Britain's foreign secretary David Lammy. We want to talk but we're serious about getting involved with military force if you do not.

But the UK was delivering an American ultimatum and threat of force it does not itself believe to be a good idea. Britain and its European partners want de-escalation and oppose any idea of Donald Trump and his military getting involved.

Iran is embattled, beleaguered and bombarded. But if its government is worried, its calm and collected foreign minister was showing none of it.

The Iranians know Trump may send in the bombers and bunker busters within two weeks, but do they believe him? The president for whom they coined the acronym 'Trump Always Chickens Out' has a credibility gap. Read more:Is Trump losing his MAGA loyalist support over Iran?Iran's secretive 'nuclear mountain' And if he takes action that leads to a chain of events where Americans end up dying, he will be crucified for it by his own MAGA movement.

Rather than buckling to concessions with an Israeli gun to their head, might the ayatollahs just take their chances in the belief this president is all talk?.