Surprise rise in inflation as summer travel pushes up air fares

Prices in the UK rose even faster than expected last month, reaching the highest level in 18 months, according to official figures.

Inflation hit 3.8% in July, data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed. The last time prices rose that fast was in January 2024.

The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rate is up from 3.6% in June and is anticipated to reach 4% by the end of the year. Economists polled by Reuters had only been expecting a 3.6% rise.

More unwelcome news is contained elsewhere in the ONS's data. Train tickets Another metric of inflation used by the government to set rail fare rises, the Retail Prices Index (RPI), came in at 4.8%.

It means train tickets could go up 5.8% next year, depending on how the government calculates the increase. This year, the rise was one percentage point above the RPI measure of inflation.

These regulated fares account for about half of rail journeys. Why? Inflation rose so much due to higher transport costs, mostly from air fares due to the school holidays, as well as from fuel and food.

Petrol and diesel were more expensive in July this year compared to last, which made journeys pricier. Read more:Energy bills expected to rise from October - despite previous forecastsSomething odd is happening in the markets - with no compelling explanation Coffee, orange juice, meat and chocolate were among the items with the highest price rises, the ONS said.

It contributed to food inflation of 4.9%. What does it mean for interest rates? Another measure of inflation that's closely watched by rate setters at the Bank of England rose above expectations.

Core inflation - which measures price rises without volatile food and energy costs - rose to 3.8%. It had been forecast to remain at 3.7%.

It's not good news for interest rates and for anyone looking to refix their mortgage, as the Bank's target for inflation is 2%. Whether or not there'll be another cut this year is unclear, but at present, traders expect no more this year, according to data from the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG).

Economists at Capital Economics anticipate a reduction in November, while the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) expects one more by the end of the year. Analysts at Pantheon Macroeconomics forecast no change in the base interest rate.

Political response Responding to the news, Chancellor Rachel Reeves said: "We have taken the decisions needed to stabilise the public finances, and we're a long way from the double-digit inflation we saw under the previous government, but there's more to do to ease the cost of living." Shadow chancellor and Conservative Mel Stride said, "Labour's choices to tax jobs and ramp up borrowing are pushing up costs and stoking inflation. And the chancellor is gearing up to do it all over again in the autumn.".