Putin set to return to EU soil for first time since war began - and you can already see his smile

As ever with Vladimir Putin, timing is everything.

Initiating a phone call with Donald Trump on the eve of Volodymyr Zelenskyy's visit to the White House was no coincidence. The Kremlin is acutely aware of the American president's apparent shift in sympathy towards Ukraine, and it's fearful that it could translate into Kyiv being given permission to use US Tomahawk missiles.

This was a clear attempt to stave off the weapons - which Moscow regards as a dangerous escalation - and bring Donald Trump back around to Russia's way of thinking. Judging by the White House readout of Thursday's call, Vladimir Putin appears to have had some success.

Instead of threats and castigation, Trump's rhetoric towards Russia is once again warm and fuzzy. He described the call as "very productive," claimed the leaders made "great progress," and - crucially - we're told there'll be another summit.

But does that really count as progress? After the distinct lack of progress that followed Alaska, I expect Ukraine and its European allies will doubt whether Budapest will be any different. What happens next? There is a chance that Trump could still give Zelenskyy what he wants in terms of firepower at their meeting today, but I doubt it.

If he does, Putin would be forced to respond, and Budapest would be bust. The call, and its outcome, follows a similar pattern.

Just as Trump seems poised to throw his support behind Ukraine and apply pressure on Russia, in a manner that's more than merely verbal, Putin somehow manages to talk him down and buy more time, despite showing no sign of compromise or making any concrete concessions. There was the demand back in March for a 30-day truce, which Putin countered by offering a ceasefire on strikes targeting energy infrastructure only.

In May, Trump tried again, but this time with the threat of joining Europe and imposing massive sanctions. Putin's response - direct talks with Ukraine.

And don't forget Trump's 50-day, then 12-day, deadline in the summer for Russia to end the war or face economic fury. That's what triggered the Alaska summit.

This feels like history is repeating itself. How does Putin do it? His tactic seems to be the same each time - offer Trump something he can present as a breakthrough, and serve it with lashings of bald-faced flattery.

In this case, he congratulated Trump on his "great accomplishment" of the Gaza ceasefire; he thanked the first lady for her intervention on Ukraine's missing children; and he agreed to (or perhaps proposed) another face-to-face photo-op. Back on EU soil with a smile If Budapest happens, Trump will get what he wants - a TV moment to serve as the latest illustration of his peace-making presidency.

But perhaps the bigger prize will be Putin's, who'll be welcomed on to EU soil for the first time since the war began, despite Europe's ongoing sanctions on Russia. You can already see his smile..