How will Hamas respond to Israel strikes? And will fragile Gaza ceasefire plan hold?

It has been tested and challenged, but this fragile ceasefire remains in place.

And for that, at least, the Middle East is presently breathing a sign of relief. There are probably three factors at play here.

Firstly, Israel, and particularly Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, felt it had to respond to a series of provocations. Foremost among them today was an attack against one of its soldiers, who was in Israeli-controlled territory when targeted.

A week ago, Israel responded to the killing of two of its soldiers with devastating air strikes on the Gaza Strip, so a pattern was established: "If you attack our people, we will target you, but with greater ferocity." But there is also the video, filmed by an Israeli military drone, that seems to show Hamas operatives pretending to discover human remains that they had, in fact, just taken from a building and buried. Israel says this is, at best, a grotesque display of bad taste and, at worst, demonstrable evidence that Hamas is lying about not knowing where to find the deceased hostages.

In the video, we see the remains, wrapped in a shroud, handed over to members of the Red Cross, who are unaware of the deceit, sparking a rare outburst of anger from the charity. "It is unacceptable that a fake recovery was staged when so much depends on this agreement being upheld, and when so many families are still anxiously awaiting news of their loved ones," said its statement.

Fury in Israel If the Red Cross are angry, a lot of Israelis are furious. The forum representing the families of hostages is calling for more military action, and the far-right members of Netanyahu's cabinet are itching for the offensive to recommence.

But the signs are that, for the moment at least, the reprisals have ceased. So Israel's response was inevitable.

But Hamas's position is less predictable. How will Hamas respond? For a start, they are distancing themselves from the attack on the Israeli soldiers, suggesting that the people involved were not following orders from Hamas, and might not even be part of Hamas at all.

For another, Hamas tried to calm the anger around the bulldozer video by rapidly claiming to have found the body of another hostage, and offering to return it within hours. That deal was rescinded after Israel launched its attacks, but, assuming this video is accurate, Hamas will know it undermines the organisation's credibility.

It will be keen to make amends, to soothe doubts and to try to stay on a path that, long term, allows Hamas to still have a part to play in Gaza's future. America's role But the third factor is perhaps the most decisive.

The US, in the shape of Vice President JD Vance, responded quickly and calmly, saying the ceasefire in Gaza was holding, describing the violence as "little skirmishes here and there". He went on: "We know that Israel will respond, but the president's peace is going to hold." And that may yet be a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Israel, after all, told America of its reprisal plans before a bomb had been dropped or a bullet fired. Netanyahu is well aware that the support of Donald Trump lays behind everything he does, and aspires to do.

And he's also aware that Trump will not want the ceasefire, which has the word Trump right at the top, to be a failure. Read more:Netanyahu accuses Hamas of 'clear violation' So, for the moment at least, the ceasefire holds, even if the firing hasn't really ceased and the first condition, about the return of all hostages, living and dead, has not been fulfilled.

But it holds because, for all the anger, mistrust, and the sense of being wronged, nobody wants to be seen to break it..