It's the PM's first ballot box test of the year - and something striking seems to be happening

The towns of Gorton and Denton feel less like political battlegrounds and more like working towns getting on with the day.

And perhaps that's the point. In places like these, elections are rarely theatrical.

They are quieter, more incremental, the odd conversation among friends who might pass each other in the street. But that doesn't mean feelings don't run deep.

In the past, this by-election would have been a dead cert for Labour. In reality, the mood on the ground suggests something more unsettled.

Something subtler and potentially more significant: fragmentation. Things got off to an interesting start when Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham was blocked from standing as Labour's candidate here.

As one of the most recognisable figures in Greater Manchester - and consistently more personally popular than Sir Keir Starmer in national polling - Burnham would likely have started as favourite. His exclusion fuelled talk that Labour's leadership was wary of giving him a Westminster platform that could lead ultimately to a leadership challenge.

At the same time, Reform's candidate has been publicly endorsed by Tommy Robinson - a backing the party has sought to distance itself from. Reform curious… At the busy indoor market in Gorton, former Labour voter Theresa Jewell is blunt about why she has switched.

"I don't like Labour, and it's Keir Starmer I don't like," she says. "He was the reason I wouldn't vote for Labour." She now plans to back Reform.

"I don't think there's really anybody else that I trust." For her, the move is personal rather than ideological - a judgement about leadership and direction. …or going Green? A few stalls away, Chenise says she would previously have been "more likely to vote Labour.