Why I was surprised by Reeves's keep calm and carry on approach to her forecast

The spring forecast was meant to be a moment to take stock of Rachel Reeves's stewardship of the economy.

But events of recent days have rendered this occasion rather meaningless: The chancellor knows only too well that war in the Middle East could throw her best-laid plans off course, so it was curious to watch her at the despatch box promising to deliver "stability" and cut the cost of living, when she knows that all of this could prove beyond her control. But the calculation from those in her team is that, four days into the conflict, it is impossible to say much about it.

The Iran-Israel conflict in June last year saw big spikes in energy prices, but it lasted only 12 days and didn't trigger a wider crisis. Donald Trump says he thinks the current conflict should be over in four or five weeks, although that is also not in his control.

Politics latest: Growth forecast downgraded for 2026 Reeves on Tuesday took the approach to "keep calm and carry on.