A humiliating blow for Starmer, and the fallout will be felt way beyond this week

First there was stonewalling, then the private complaints from MPs before a very public outburst that saw an eye-watering 127 MPs tell their prime minister they were going to defy him on a welfare vote.

Now, the inevitable climbdown has arrived, with Downing Street making a significant offer to rebels last night on their planned cuts to disability benefits. A government with a massive 165-strong working majority had an awakening on Thursday to the importance of parliament as it embarked on a humiliating climbdown after the private warnings of MPs to Downing Street fell on deaf ears.

It's worth taking a beat to reflect on the enormity of this moment. Less than a year ago, the prime minister was walking into Number 10 having won a landslide, with a Labour majority not seen since the Blair era.

That he has been forced to retreat by angry foot soldiers so early in this premiership, despite having such a big majority, is simply unprecedented. No government has lost a vote at second reading - this basically the general principles of a bill - since 1986 (Thatcher's shops bill) and that was the only occasion a government with a working majority lost a bill at the second reading in the entire 20th century.

It is obviously a humiliating blow to the authority of the prime minister from a parliamentary party that has felt ignored by Downing Street. And while Number 10 has finally moved - and quickly - to try to shut down the rebellion, the fallout is going to be felt long beyond this week.

Before we get into the problems for Starmer, I would like to acknowledge the predicament he's in. Over the past 10 days, I have followed him to the G7 in Canada, where the Iran-Israel crisis, US-UK trade deal and Ukraine war were on the agenda, to Chequers at the weekend as he tried to deal with the US attack on Iran and all the risk it carried, and to the NATO summit this week in the Netherlands.

He could be forgiven for being furious with his operation for failing to contain the crisis when all his attention was on grave international matters. He landed back in Westminster from the NATO summit on Wednesday night into a domestic battle that he really didn't need but moved quickly to contain, signing off a plan that had been worked up this week in Downing Street to try to see off this rebellion.

???? Click here to listen to Electoral Dysfunction on your podcast app ???? What will the changes be? At the time of writing this, the government is yet to officially announce the climbdown, but I expect it to be significant. I understand the government is offering to keep personal independence payments, the benefits given to those who are disabled, unchanged for existing claimants, rowing back on an initial plan to take it away from hundreds of thousands of people by tightening the criteria for claiming.

I also understand the government will drop the cuts to the health element of universal credit for existing claimants, in changes that will cost an estimated £1.5bn - nearly a third of the savings the government has previously earmarked from these changes. One senior parliamentary source told me on Thursday night they thought it was a "good package" with "generous concessions.