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Fooled by Randomness
Fooled by Randomness is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand. The other books in the series are The Black Swan, Antifragile, Skin in the Game, and The Bed of Procrustes.
Fooled by Randomness is the word-of-mouth sensation that will change the way you think about business and the world. Nassim Nicholas Taleb–veteran trader, renowned risk expert, polymathic scholar, erudite raconteur, and New York Times bestselling author of The Black Swan–has written a modern classic that turns on its head what we believe about luck and skill.
This book is about luck–or more precisely, about how we perceive and deal with luck in life and business. Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill–the world of trading–Fooled by Randomness provides captivating insight into one of the least understood factors in all our lives. Writing in an entertaining narrative style, the author tackles major intellectual issues related to the underestimation of the influence of happenstance on our lives.
The book is populated with an array of characters, some of whom have grasped, in their own way, the significance of chance: the baseball legend Yogi Berra; the philosopher of knowledge Karl Popper; the ancient world’s wisest man, Solon; the modern financier George Soros; and the Greek voyager Odysseus. We also meet the fictional Nero, who seems to understand the role of randomness in his professional life but falls victim to his own superstitious foolishness.
However, the most recognizable character of all remains unnamed–the lucky fool who happens to be in the right place at the right time–he embodies the “survival of the least fit.” Such individuals attract devoted followers who believe in their guru’s insights and methods. But no one can replicate what is obtained by chance.
Are we capable of distinguishing the fortunate charlatan from the genuine visionary? Must we always try to uncover nonexistent messages in random events? It may be impossible to guard ourselves against the vagaries of the goddess Fortuna, but after reading Fooled by Randomness we can be a little better prepared.
Named by Fortune One of the Smartest Books of All Time
A Financial Times Best Business Book of the Year
More Books from Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Reviews
When I understand Nassim’s prose, I find his statements intuitively obvious. I never had the benefit of a liberal education, in spite of having several degrees and over nine years as a full-time student at prestigious universities.
By joanlw
I cannot make any music but I certainly enjoy listening to it. Nicholas is writing about me. I am a man of less than average looks who produced beautiful children. I have no athletic ability. I am emotional and no intellectual talent. I read a lot and I am curious. Despite these circumstances I have been blessed with good health and wealth. I know it is all because of luck and I am content with it as long as it lasts.
By johnny spastic
This book is fantastic. I shared a lot of the same views on life as the author but this book put it (very succinctly) into the right words. Great read and one of the few books I will read again!
By Nnhgdseffvjhfx
I read this gem when it was first published. Its eye-opening take on how we are easily duped, lulled and suckered into the "ordinary", while having our minds and wallets picked, is priceless. Taleb excels at telling a story and for going where few dare.
By AJB3333
In that order. A fresh, hilariously offensive and thoughtful book.
By GoldfishBowl